CAIIB · Advanced Bank Management · Module A — Statistics
CAIIB ABM Unit 5 — Time Series: Free MCQs with Explanations
By Swarnakshi Jha (ex-banker) · Updated 29 October 2026 · Paper I of the December 2026 cycle (Sunday 6 December 2026)
This is the free practice page for CAIIB ABM Unit 5 — Time Series (Module A — Statistics). The CAIIB Mock Centre holds 135 questions on this unit alone, every one with a why-right / why-wrong explanation; below are the facts examiners keep returning to, five practice questions with explanations, and the traps that cost marks.
ABM · Module A135 MCQs in the Mock Centre5 free belowPaper on 6 December
Key facts examiners test from this unit
Time series and its four components — a time series is data at regular intervals; it moves under four forces: trend, cycle, season and irregular shocks (TSCI).
Trend analysis — fit ŷ = a + bx with time coded to mean zero, so b = Σxy ÷ Σx² and a = ȳ; use a parabola when the series bends.
Seasonal variation and the seasonal index — seasonal indices (base 100, total 400) come from ratios to centred moving averages; divide to deseasonalise, multiply to reseasonalise.
5 free practice questions — tap an option
Five practice questions from this unit. Answers lock on the first tap, exactly as in the exam, and an explanation opens underneath. The Mock Centre has all 135 questions on this unit, from easy to tough, with caselets and key-in numericals, why every other option is wrong and the exam tip — and tracks your score and revision dates.
Question 1 of 5
Earthquakes, floods and wars produce which component of a time series?
Why (b): Their effects are unpredictable and random, so they cannot be forecast from the time series: irregular variation. (a) is wrong: These events do not recur at the same time each year. (c) is wrong: They are sudden shocks, not long-term tendencies. (d) is wrong: Cycles are recurring waves around the trend, not one-off shocks.
Question 2 of 5
The years 2012 to 2016 are coded for a trend calculation. What are the codes?
Why (b): Five years (odd): the mean year is 2014, and subtracting it gives −2, −1, 0, 1, 2, which add to zero. (a) is wrong: Doubled odd codes are used only for an even number of periods. (c) is wrong: These codes do not have a mean of zero. (d) is wrong: Half-codes arise only for an even number of years.
Question 3 of 5
What must the four quarterly seasonal indices add up to?
Why (a): Each index has a mean of 100, so four quarterly indices total 400; that is why the modified means are adjusted to 400. (b) is wrong: 100 is the average index, not the total. (c) is wrong: 1,200 is the total for twelve monthly indices. (d) is wrong: Indices are percentages around 100, not deviations around zero.
Question 4 of 5
In the residual method, how is the "per cent of trend" calculated?
Why (d): Dividing the actual value y by the trend (predicted) value ŷ and multiplying by 100 gives the cyclical variation as a percentage of the trend. (a) is wrong: It averages the two values. (b) is wrong: It inverts the ratio. (c) is wrong: A difference times 100 is not a percentage of the trend.
Question 5 of 5
What does the term "autoregression" indicate?
Why (c): The textbook says the term autoregression indicates that it is a regression of the variable against itself. (a) is wrong: A regression on time is a trend line. (b) is wrong: "auto" here means "self", not "automatic". (d) is wrong: No seasonal index is involved.
0 of 5 answered.
Traps in this unit
Business cycle called seasonal.
One good year read as a new trend.
Substituting the year (2024) instead of its code.
Practise all 135 questions on Unit 5. The free CAIIB demo opens Units 1–2 of every paper with full explanations; the ABM Online Mock Centre unlocks all 4,600+ ABM questions, the full-length papers with caselets and key-ins, module mocks and Smart Revision for 18 months (₹1,499).
Independent study aid — not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the Indian Institute of Banking & Finance (IIBF). Exam pattern, dates, fees and passing criteria are set by IIBF — always confirm the current rules at iibf.org.in. CAIIB content follows rules and developments up to IIBF's cut-off of 30 June 2026 (where a rule changed later, the update box says so); verify from official sources before relying on them in practice.